Federal election 2025: The key seats to watch as Australia head to the polls

For the next five weeks, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will criss-cross the country in their race to The Lodge.

While there is an acknowledgement from all sides of politics that there is no longer such a thing as a “safe seat”, already trends have begun to emerge in the electorates where Labor and the Coalition are putting in extra effort.

It’s widely expected both buses will spend a significant chunk of time in the suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne, with Labor and Liberal strategists alike admitting this election will be won or lost in the outer suburbs where cost-of-living is being felt most acutely.

These are the most marginal seats in the country, which could prove crucial in deciding who wins or loses.

NSW

Bennelong

The former northern Sydney seat of John Howard, Labor’s Jerome Laxale won with a one per cent margin in 2022. Thanks to the abolishment of the North Sydney electorate, the redistribution has made this seat notionally Liberal with a margin of 0.04 per cent. Expect Dutton to spend a bit of time here with candidate Scott Yung, and Albanese to appear beside Laxale.

Gilmore

The south coast seat, held by Labor MP Fiona Phillips with a post-distribution margin of 0.2 per cent, is firmly within the Liberal’s sights and considered a likely win. Former NSW treasurer Andrew Constance is running again after he fell short by just 400 votes in 2022. Albanese and Dutton have already both spent some time in the pre-campaign season in the electorate, and likely will make a few stops more in the weeks ahead.

Fowler

Independent Dai Le, also a local councilor, won the western Sydney seat from Labor in 2022 after voters made their anger known about the Party parachuting in Kristina Keneally. The redistribution has tightened the margin to 1.1 per cent. Labor has this time backed local candidate Tu Le, who was passed over by the Party in 2022.

Robertson

Labor won this electorate, encompassing the lower part of the central coast, off the Liberal Party in 2022 for the first time in nine years. The Liberals have selected former MP Lucy Wicks to run again to take on Labor’s Gordon Reid, who holds the electorate with 2.2 per cent.

Bradfield

Paul Fletcher’s retirement ahead of the election, and the AEC redistribution has upped the ante in this Sydney electorate. The Liberals hold it with a 2.5 per cent margin against local community independent Nicolette Boele, who has continued to amass support over the last three years. After a fierce preselection battle, the Liberal Party chose senior executive Gisele Kapterian to contest the seat this time around.

Paterson

Liberal strategists believe the best chance the Party has of beating the Labor Party to power this time around is from picking off seats in NSW and Victoria like Paterson. Held by Meryl Swanson with 2.6 per cent, it’s one of the most likely to fall to the Liberals should the polls manifest a sizeable swing against the Government. The offshore wind zone is set to be a hot topic, with Dutton joining Liberal candidate Laurence Antcliff before Christmas to announce a plan to scrap the plans.

Other seats to watch

• Parramatta: Labor held with 3.7 per cent
• Hunter: Labor held with 4.8 per cent
• Reid: Labor held with 5.2 per cent
• Werriwa: Labor held with 5.3 per cent

VICTORIA

Deakin

The most marginal seat in the country, Liberal frontbencher Michael Sukkar currently holds the Melbourne mortgage-belt electorate by just 0.02 per cent. Matt Gregg will contest the seat for Labor this time around, and given Albanese has already made a visit to Croydon this year it’s likely he’ll pop back up — although if the swing against the Government goes the way the polls predict, this election will widen Sukkar’s margin.

Menzies

Despite being notionally Labor (0.4 per cent) after the re-distribution, Albanese hasn’t made a trip to this suburban Melbourne seat so far this year. But Labor strategists know it’s seats like these where the Party risks losing voters hard-done-by the cost-of-living crisis. Liberal MP Keith Wolahan has done a lot of work in the last three years repairing relationships with the Chinese diaspora, who make up 27 per cent of the population. But Albanese’s efforts to repair diplomatic relations with Beijing could work in Labor’s favour and local candidate Gordon Ng is working to tap into the diaspora.

Kooyong

Another former Liberal Party stronghold lost to the “teal” wave of 2022, the party believes it has a strong chance of taking Josh Frydenberg’s former seat in Melbourne’s inner-east back from Monique Ryan this time. Held by the independent with a 2.2 per cent margin, the Libs have selected fintech executive Amelia Hamer to run this time around.

Chisholm

Another suburban seat the Liberal Party are looking to pick off Labor, they will run former Higgins MP Katie Allen this time around to tackle Carina Garland’s post-redistribution margin of 3.3 per cent margin. Dutton’s decision to launch his federal election campaign in this Melbourne seat last January was deliberate. “If we win Chisholm, we’re a step closer to winning government. And if we win government, we can get Victoria and our country moving again,” he said. About 30 per cent of Chisholm’s electorate are Chinese-Australian voters, who made their thoughts on former PM Scott Morrison’s hawkish approach to Beijing known in 2022.

Other seats to watch

• McEwan: Labor held with 3.8 per cent
• Bruce: Labor held with 5.3 per cent
• Goldstein: Independent held with 3.3 per cent
• Wannon: Liberal held 3.5 per cent (v Independent)

South Australia

Sturt

Liberal James Stevens is facing a tough competition to hold on to his 0.5 per cent margin in the Adelaide suburbs. The party knows that state Labor’s popularity and the Peter Malinauskas effect could come into play, and ALP candidate Claire Clutterham – a local councilor and lawyer – will likely be hoping the state Premier pops up on the campaign trail to support her.

QUEENSLAND

Dickson

Local MP Dutton will spend much of the election campaign elsewhere, but back at home in Brisbane’s outer suburbs he will feel pressure from three sides to hold on to his seat, which he holds with a 1.7 per cent margin. It’s the most marginal seat in Queensland, and he faces threats from Labor candidate Ali France (back for the third time), Greens candidate Vinnie Batten, and community independent Ellie Smith, backed by Climate 200. Experts say it’s unlikely Dutton will lose his seat, but all politics is local.

Ryan

One of three Brisbane seats the Greens picked off the major parties in the last election, Dutton has made his goal of clawing this suburban seat back. Local barrister Maggie Forrest will take on Elizabeth Watson-Brown in the seat the minor party holds with a 2.6 per cent margin. Labor is also trying to get a hold back in inner-Brisbane and are running school leader Rebecca Hack in this electorate. Preference flows will be interesting to watch on election day.

Leichardt

The retirement of Liberal MP Warren Entsch and the state election results have put a spring in Labor’s step in the Cairns seat. Former pro basketballer Matt Smith is hoping to chip away at the Liberal’s 3.4 per cent margin, which paramedic Jeremy Neal is trying to defend for the Coalition.

Other seats to watch

• Brisbane: Greens held with 3.7 per cent
• Griffith: Greens held with 10.5 per cent

TASMANIA

Lyons

The most marginal Tasmanian seat, won by Brian Mitchell in 2022 with a slim 0.9 per cent, is set to be a tightly contested race this time around. Mitchell’s retirement has put former state Labor leader Rebecca White in the candidate chair, where she will face off against Susie Bower. Dutton and Albanese have both already spent quite some time in the seat - the geographical largest in the state - which was Liberal held between 1984-1993, and 2013-2016.

Bass

A Tasmanian bellwether seat, encompassing Launceston and surrounds, the electorate has flipped between Labor and Liberal at almost every election since 1993. Bridget Archer broke the curse in 2022 when she retained the seat, which she holds with a 1.4 per cent margin. Dutton has not spent much time in the seat, but Archer – often regarded as a renegade within the party – has a strong support base. Albanese’s decision to announce his $8.5 billion Medicare pledge in the electorate demonstrates Labor’s eagerness to take the seat red again.

Other seats to watch

• Franklin: Labor held by 13.7 per cent

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Curtin

The affluent Perth electorate, a former Liberal stronghold, went teal in 2022 when Kate Chaney became the local MP. It is high on the Liberal Party’s “must win” list, and local candidate Tom White appears confident he has a chance of taking the seat dark blue again. Expect Dutton to spend some time in the electorate whenever he heads west during the campaign.

Tangney

There is a feeling within the Liberal Party that of the massive red wave that hit the West in 2022, Tangney is one of only a handful they have a chance of winning back. Dolphin trainer-turned-Labor MP Sam Lim will be contested by Liberal Howard Ong, as he tries to close the distance on the incumbent’s 2.8 per cent margin.

Bullwinkel

A new seat taking in the outer Perth suburbs, notionally held by Labor with 3.3 per cent, there will be a three-horse race between Labor, the Liberals, and the Nationals. Liberal candidate Matt Moran is confident he will win the seat. Expect Dutton and Albanese, as well as Nationals Leader David Littleproud, to spend some time here.

NORTHERN TERRITORY

Lingiari

The expansive Northern Territory electorate, which represents everyone not living in Darwin, is held by Labor’s Marion Scrymgour with a 1.7 per cent margin. Dutton believes he can take the seat back with CLP candidate Lisa SIebert – a federal police officer. Dutton has made many points in the last few years about how much time he’s spent in Alice Springs compared to Albanese – who has visited the electorate twice already this year.