AFL finals: The three players that will shape each club’s premiership hopes this September

Which club’s terrific trio will have the biggest impact in shaping the finals? From Heeney to Hogan, and from Jamarra to Jezza, Jackson Barrett assesses the players most likely to have a huge say in September.

PORT ADELAIDE

Willem Drew

It’s a month for the best teams and the best players. Drew is one of the best in the league at stopping them. Ken Hinkley relieved him of those duties for a patch towards the end of the season, but he returned to shut Caleb Serong out of their match a fortnight ago. There is a chance he does his own thing against the Cats on Thursday night, but there will be assignments ahead for Drew.

Jason Horne-Francis

Teams in the final weeks of the season have struggled to contain Port Adelaide’s speed around the ball and their burst away from stoppages. Horne-Francis can tear teams apart by winning the ball and shooting away from contests. It’s a stacked midfield trio with Zak Butters and Connor Rozee, but Horne-Francis feels like their wildcard.

Ryan Burton

No Dan Houston, who is banned for the rest of the year, and no Kane Farrell, who is out injured. It leaves Ryan Burton as Port’s most experienced small defender. He will get some assistance from Logan Evans who has been a nice addition this season, but Burton will have to carry a lot of the load. It could start with stopping Tyson Stengle on Thursday.

GEELONG

Tom Stewart

Stewart was subbed out of the Cats’ final home-and-away game against the Eagles a fortnight ago, but will be fit to face Port Adelaide. His time in the midfield rose steeply in the back-half of the year and it turned his season around. He becomes more difficult to stop when he is rolling back as the spare defender from stoppage and figuring it out will be crucial in beating Geelong.

Jeremy Cameron

There’s not a team in the competition that has a ready-made match-up for Jeremy Cameron and Port Adelaide are going to have to fashion something with one of their talls on Thursday night, given their dearth of half-back options. He’s fresh off a bag of nine against West Coast and six against Adelaide a month ago. Regardless of what their forward line looks around Cameron, he is the key.

Tom Hawkins

The retiring forward will become one of the selection stories of the season if he gets through a very rare appearance in the reserves this weekend. In his final campaign, Hawkins will likely push for the spot occupied by Shannon Neale if he gets through. It was shaping as a lean year for the veteran even before he injured his foot, but he will leave Chris Scott with a serious selection headache.

HAWTHORN

James Sicily

Hawthorn’s skipper is the queen of their chessboard. Two of his best performances this year have been in the forward line late in games, but he will start as their most important defender. He leads his side for marks and is starts a lot of the lightning ball movement that has lit up the MCG this season.

Jack Ginnivan

This week’s first final is a very rare Friday night fixture for a large chunk of Hawthorn’s brash young playing group. But Ginnivan has been there and done that. The electric small forward starred on this sort of stage several times for Collingwood on their way to last year’s premiership and as the ringleader of their young players, this experience might come in handy.

Will Day

Hawthorn looked a completely fresh side when Will Day returned from injury earlier in the season, but now he has been ruled out of their first final. It will be their big storyline if they make it past the first week, given he makes life so much easier for Jai Newcombe and James Worpel around the footy, plus he adds his own class to their game.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Marcus Bontempelli

There are a couple of players that can put their entire team on their back, playing in this series. Bontempelli is one of them. If Jason Johannisen misses again this week, the skipper will be one of only four Bulldogs that played in their 2016 premiership. It would surprise nobody if he turned a game on its head by himself in this finals series. He’s done it before at this time of year.

Tim English

Most of the best ruckmen in the competition are already on holidays this year. There is room for a big man to step up and star after English went from All-Australian last year to completely out of the reckoning, he would love to make a statement. Starting with Lloyd Meek on Friday night, English is set to face some traditional tap-rucks he needs to beat around the ground.

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan

There have been quarters this season where Ugle-Hagan has looked like prime Wayne Carey and others where you’d be forgiven for forgetting he was playing. As the year wore on we have seen more of the good than the bad and his ability to pluck marks from the sky and take them on the lead is going to be a nightmare for defenders. It feels like he could be ready for a real breakout month.

SYDNEY

Chad Warner

Sydney’s All-Australian star is their midfield weapon. Two years ago he was their best player in a catastrophic grand final loss and now he is their best player altogether. His 32 goals have been one of the highlights of his career-best year and the scoring output of Warner and Isaac Heeney could shape how deep they go with a forward group less impressive than their finals rivals.

Joel Amartey

The biggest question marks lingering over Sydney surround their forward line. Amartey has been the best-performed of their talls this season, with Logan McDonald even sent to the backline in recent weeks. It’s not a group that fills tippers with a whole lot of confidence, but one of their big targets must stand up against the imposing Greater Western Sydney duo of Jack Buckley and Sam Taylor.

Isaac Heeney

The Swans star was a Brownlow Medal fancy for much of the season and while he has had less of an impact after a mid-year suspension, he is still among their most important players. He is nicely rested after a break in the final round and will cause troubles in midfield.

GWS

Jesse Hogan

The Coleman medallist has played just four finals in a decade-long career across three clubs, but he has booted nine goals from those matches. GWS are putting all sorts of measures in place to make sure Hogan is getting the match-ups he wants and they are a chance to meet some injury-stretched backlines along their road.

Toby Greene

A player built for the big stage, working nicely into his season as it wears on. Greene looms as a really dangerous prospect for defenders this September. He’s booted 41 goals this season and hasn’t gone without one since round 10 — but that was against Sydney, who they meet on Saturday.

Sam Taylor

There were real fears the Giants would be without the best full-back in the game when he suffered a nasty head knock and then a very nasty ruptured testicle this season. But is back and has built into some form. If they lose to the minor premiers this week a wrestle with either Joe Daniher or Charlie Curnow awaits, with Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Jeremy Cameron also looming large in the finals.

CARLTON

Sam Docherty

You can’t underestimate the spiritual boost having Sam Docherty in their team will give Carlton on Saturday night. The inspirational former captain is a chance to play as the sub and Michael Voss has flagged he will be given some sort of a role, but he will have a huge impact on their finals campaign regardless of what he does at the Gabba this weekend.

Patrick Cripps

Like Bontempelli, Cripps can carry a team over the line himself. His colossal performance against West Coast three weeks ago was testament to that and his match-up with Lachie Neale on Saturday night will be gripping.

Charlie Curnow

Carlton will be in a far better position to win this game if they can stretch Brisbane’s depleted backline. Key back Jack Payne is a decent chance to come back into the side to help Harris Andrews, but either way Curnow being in that side will be a big help. Curnow and Harry McKay would be massive.

BRISBANE

Lachie Neale

The midfield star talked down his own Brownlow Medal chances this week, but it’s a live possibility he is a three-time winner by the end of the month. He had 40 disposals and kicked a goal in their final home-and-away game against the Bombers and has dipped under 20 just once this season.

Harris Andrews

The backman was very stiff to miss the final All-Australian team, but as he did last season, could shape their September hopes. Andrews is the second-leading player in the competition for spoils and far and away the intercept mark leader this season. It’s those marks that set him up the Lions’ offence, but he could play a key defensive role too if Curnow or McKay line up.

Joe Daniher

Will we get hot Joe or cold Joe? The big key forward has copped some heat this season for selfish ball use and poor decision-making going inside 50, but he is on a bit of a hot streak. Daniher hasn’t gone goalless in seven matches, including two bags of four. He could make life really difficult.