Ryan Buckland: Carlton’s final games set to shape who plays finals as Gold Coast push for maiden berth

With six weeks to go every spot in the top eight is still up for grabs.

According to AFL analytics blog Matter of Stats, there are still up to half of the competition’s teams who can finish in eight spot.

If we rule the likes of North Melbourne, West Coast, Greater Western Sydney and Essendon down the bottom, and consider that Geelong, Melbourne and Fremantle are all three wins plus percentage inside the top eight, it’s going to be an incredible finale to the home and away season.

All roads lead to Carlton as the side with both the most to play for and the most to say about finals seeding.

The Blues play the Cats, Lions, Dees and Pies in their final six games. These games could decide whether Carlton make the top four, or end up in the bottom eight rock fight.

Another team currently on the outside looking in but still with a finals chance is Gold Coast.

The Suns looked dead and buried with six minutes to go in the final quarter of Saturday’s game against the Richmond. A loss would have put them three games plus percentage back from eighth with six games to play. Death.

But after a miracle after-the-siren win there path to make finals for the first time remains open.

It’s not easy, a point underscored by the market which has given the Suns a 4/1 chance of scraping in. The rest of the current top eight are all rated as a better than 75 per cent chance of making it. It’s not impossible, but it’s challenging.

It’s one of a few intriguing plot lines for the final part of the home and away season. How will the top four take shape? Has Geelong finally found the time to strike? Is Tankapalooza live again after West Coast’s insipid second half against the Blues, and North Melbourne’s coaching change?

But from my perspective, Gold Coast’s final six games are set to be the most fun to follow. Watching a feel-good story, honing in on a Cinderella run to its first shot at the big prize, against the odds, in real time? Yes please.

Gold Coast currently sits in 11th place, on 8-8 with a percentage of 108.9, an extremely good record for an 11th placed team. It would’ve seen the Suns in seventh spot in 2021.

As above, they are a win and percentage from eighth spot. The name of the game is win at least one more game than the three teams in eighth (Richmond), ninth (St Kilda) or 10th (the Western Bulldogs) in the final six. There’s a chance Gold Coast needs to go +2 against the Tigers given the percentage gap, but we’ll set that aside for now.

The Suns have three games they should win with ease: Essendon (this weekend), West Coast (Round 20), and North Melbourne (Round 23). Essendon’s recent resurgence has been interesting but it is worth noting the Dons lost to the Swans by four goals on Expected Score and beat a COVID-afflicted Lions side. And both were coin-flip-style close games with margins of less than two goals.

A fourth win looks prospective in Round 22, against Hawthorn. The little wrinkle is the game is in Launceston where the Suns have an 0-5 record against the Hawks, and where the Hawks beat the Brisbane Lions earlier in the season. That being said, the Hawks have been rancid after a bright start to the year.

Assuming the Suns go 4-0 in the above, they will reach 12 wins and be in the game for the eighth seed. It leaves games against Brisbane and Geelong as the critical pivots for Gold Coast’s season. Jag both — unlikely, but possible — and the Suns will surely make it. Win one, they’d be better-than-even odds. The last time 13-9 wasn’t good enough to make the finals series was 1992 when only six of 15 teams played in September.

The Suns travel to face Brisbane at the GABBA, which will be tough. But they host Geelong at Metricon Stadium in Round 22, a venue where the Cats have a (relatively) mixed record, haven’t played at since 2019, and could be in rest mode with a veteran team and a top two spot sewn up.

The game’s venue is critical.

After more than a decade in the league, the Suns seem to have finally jagged a home ground advantage on the Gold Coast. They’re 4-3 in 2022 with two end-game fade-outs against Melbourne in Round 2 and Collingwood in Round 16 the difference between a near-sweep at home.

Under Stuart Dew the Suns have rebuilt the hard way, playing young and talented sides with a sprinkle of veterans to act as on-field stewards. They’ve been active during trade periods, with decidedly mixed results, but seem to have drafted well to compensate. In the club’s defence the AFL went all RBA on the club’s draft and salary cap concessions in recent years, pulling the rug at the wrong time.

Need proof we’re in uncharted territory? It comes down to this. In their short history the Suns have won 54 games out of 220 (excluding 2020). They have won 30 of 93 games (32 per cent) in March, April and May, and just 24 of 127 games (19 per cent) in June, July, August and September. So far in 2022 the Suns have won three of five (60 per cent), with losses by five and two points.

It’s not quite GWS’ starburst in 2015, but if you look hard enough the signs are there. Gold Coast is playing a strong, forward half-focussed game and have built a squad capable of moving the ball quick between the arcs. It’s proving successful.

Can they do it? Absolutely. And if not, watching the Suns try will be a fun storyline to follow as we move into the business end of the season.