Preparing for the “Big One”

The recent threat posed by Cyclone Rusty to the North West highlights the vulnerability of the Pilbara to natural or manmade disasters and the need for a national disaster plan, according to a WA research institute set up by former Governor-General Michael Jeffery.

The North West is of particular interest to the Future Directions International institute, which points to the fact that Australia’s continued prosperity and economic credentials increasingly relies on the Pilbara. Its research notes by 2018, the Pilbara Development Commission projects the total earned annually by the resources sector will be about $211 billion, constituting 17 per cent of Australia’s GDP.

The institute said a relatively minor disruption could result in a costly loss of production leading to not just lower export earnings, but loss of employment, environmental damage and a major impact on local, regional and national economies.

It points to the risk of cyclones causing flooding which could release contaminants from mining or damage critical infrastructure, in turn causing environmental damage.

Research shows the Queensland floods of 2011 resulted in the loss of 20 per cent of coal exports for the year’s first quarter, amounting to $2.5 billion, causing the biggest quarterly fall in GDP since 1991.

It also notes the growth of Port Hedland and Karratha into medium-density urban centres is concentrating the population into one of the most climatically violent regions in Australia. FDI chief executive officer, Major General John Hartley, a former deputy chief of the army and director of the Defence Intelligence Organisation, said there needs to be reform of disaster management and the Federal Government should commission a national catastrophic disaster plan. He said catastrophe management strategies should become a priority for local, State and Commonwealth governments.

Major General Hartley said Australia is still to be tested by “the Big One” — a catastrophic disaster on a scale akin to that which hit the USA with Hurricane Katrina.

He points to the fact that while Australia has a robust disaster management system, luck has played an important role in avoiding a catastrophic disaster.

Our lack of experience in dealing with a “big one” meant agencies did not have first-hand knowledge of valuable analysis of lessons learned after the event.